Daniel Gross writes in today's Moneybox that the US isn't as indispensible to the global economy as many of the minds and movers think so. Much of this stems from our new "bad habits" of "erecting barriers, denigrating old allies, and wallowing in our unipolar arrogance."
Our financial markets have long been the envy of the world, despite their many flaws. But foreign companies now want out of them. The [Financial Times] has run a series of stories hinting that European companies are really cheesed off by the requirements imposed upon them by Sarbanes-Oxley. Apparently, "the majority of German companies with U.S. stock market listings would like to get out of New York to avoid the cost and hassle of complying with the U.S. regulatory regime."
Wednesday, December 15, 2004
Tuesday, December 14, 2004
More Razor-Thin Elections
As if we didn't already have enough razor-thin election results this year, an investigation by the LA Times released this afternoon showed that the mayoral race for San Diego was decided by a judge's intepretation of state law last month.
A review of disputed ballots showed today that write-in candidate Councilwoman Donna Frye would have beaten Mayor Dick Murphy except for a judge's decision refusing to order the counting of "empty oval" ballots.
In the official results, Murphy beat Frye by 2,108 ballots out of 455,694 cast and was sworn in last week for a second term.
But a review requested and paid for by five media organizations and two Frye supporters showed 4,180 ballots in which voters wrote in Frye's name but did not darken the oval on the line next to her name.None of those ballots were included in the official tally because state law requires the ovals to be darkened.
So let's see, you write-in the candidate's name, but the act of not darkening the oval next to the name nullifies the vote? The League of Women Voters and other groups aren't so sure about that.
A review of disputed ballots showed today that write-in candidate Councilwoman Donna Frye would have beaten Mayor Dick Murphy except for a judge's decision refusing to order the counting of "empty oval" ballots.
In the official results, Murphy beat Frye by 2,108 ballots out of 455,694 cast and was sworn in last week for a second term.
But a review requested and paid for by five media organizations and two Frye supporters showed 4,180 ballots in which voters wrote in Frye's name but did not darken the oval on the line next to her name.None of those ballots were included in the official tally because state law requires the ovals to be darkened.
So let's see, you write-in the candidate's name, but the act of not darkening the oval next to the name nullifies the vote? The League of Women Voters and other groups aren't so sure about that.
Red Turkey Award of the Week
The Red (Burned) Turkey Award this week goes to Bernard Kerik
Although it's a bit early in the week, the Red (faced) Turkey Award simply must go to former NYPD Commisioner Bernard Kerik. Not only did he admit to non-payment of taxes for his nanny, but he also had a long-term affair with the publisher of his book "The Lost Son" while being newly married with two small children, earned $6.2 million from the taser company that does business with Homeland Security, and accepted thousand of dollars worth of gifts from a New Jersey construction company with reported mob ties - and these things were known back in 2000! Plainly, he should never have been nominated to be Homeland Security in the first place.
The NYT report today contains this choice piece:
Those around Kerik -- and even Kerik himself -- may have paid the price for becoming too enamored of his image as a brash, self-made law enforcer, said Stanley Renshon, a political scientist and psychoanalyst at the City University of New York's Graduate Center in Manhattan.
``Kerik is a great rags-to-accomplishment story and Bush really likes that because it fits into is view of the American dream,'' Renshon said. ``What's different about them is that Bush is pretty much a straight shooter. He's a straight-and-narrow kind of guy, and Kerik clearly is a lot less that.''
Yeah. A lot less.
LA Times Blogging via The Guardian (UK)
Today's Guardian relates the intrigue of inside blogging at the Los Angeles Times. Since it was surprising to see a local matter detailed at length in a British newspaper, I am including the article in full:
Sign-off of the Times
Almost as fast as it went up, it was gone. A blogger claiming to be a disgruntled LA Times journalist clearly had second thoughts about their new blog, Third Floor View. The site was only live for a matter of days before it was yanked from the web this afternoon, after only a couple of posts: one listing some of the issues they were planning to write about (visible on the Google cache of the blog), and the most recent berating the newspaper's managers for paying too much mind to the New York Times's front page (quoted at length at Patterico's Pontifications).
LAObserved wrote on Sunday: "It will be interesting to see whether, ultimately, he or she sheds light or turns out to be a disgruntled copy pusher with a grudge." It seems that question will remain unanswered, unless the blog makes a reappearance.
Another LA blog, LA Voice, writes of the situation:
"It'll be interesting to watch his/her identity unravel in the coming months, as doubtless it could, given enough interest from the glassed-in offices or the desk in the next pod over."
Perhaps Third Floor View took heed of these prognostications and decided to call it a day before s/he was found out.
Had they not given up so fast, they could have joined former LA Times staffer Ken Reich, whose Take Back the Times blog is described by LA Voice as "consistently relentless blog-critique".
Are media managers quaking in their boots? Newspaper bosses can see the creation of personal blogs by their staff as a threat - (as did CNN when it asked Kevin Sites to stop blogging a while back) or a boon, depending on how much they know and care about blogs. This hardly matters, however. As CyberJournalist.net's list of journalists with blogs and this UK version of the list at the Big Blog Company (at the foot of a post about a "blogging boot camp" they are running for journalists - another sign of the tide turning) shows, there are a lot of newspaper journalists with personal blogs (including, er, me).
And unless media organisations impose a heavy-handed and creativity-killing ban on journalists' personal blogs, there is every likelihood that the number of hacks with personal blogs will boom during 2005. If newspapers are to embrace the two-way conversation with readers predicted by Dan Gillmor and others, they are going to have to accept that the dialogue will feature their own staff. Anyway, there are plenty of examples of best practice out there: not least the BBC's Stuart Hughes and Guardian Unlimited's very own Neil McIntosh.
Posted by Jane Perrone at December 14, 2004 03:39 PM
Sign-off of the Times
Almost as fast as it went up, it was gone. A blogger claiming to be a disgruntled LA Times journalist clearly had second thoughts about their new blog, Third Floor View. The site was only live for a matter of days before it was yanked from the web this afternoon, after only a couple of posts: one listing some of the issues they were planning to write about (visible on the Google cache of the blog), and the most recent berating the newspaper's managers for paying too much mind to the New York Times's front page (quoted at length at Patterico's Pontifications).
LAObserved wrote on Sunday: "It will be interesting to see whether, ultimately, he or she sheds light or turns out to be a disgruntled copy pusher with a grudge." It seems that question will remain unanswered, unless the blog makes a reappearance.
Another LA blog, LA Voice, writes of the situation:
"It'll be interesting to watch his/her identity unravel in the coming months, as doubtless it could, given enough interest from the glassed-in offices or the desk in the next pod over."
Perhaps Third Floor View took heed of these prognostications and decided to call it a day before s/he was found out.
Had they not given up so fast, they could have joined former LA Times staffer Ken Reich, whose Take Back the Times blog is described by LA Voice as "consistently relentless blog-critique".
Are media managers quaking in their boots? Newspaper bosses can see the creation of personal blogs by their staff as a threat - (as did CNN when it asked Kevin Sites to stop blogging a while back) or a boon, depending on how much they know and care about blogs. This hardly matters, however. As CyberJournalist.net's list of journalists with blogs and this UK version of the list at the Big Blog Company (at the foot of a post about a "blogging boot camp" they are running for journalists - another sign of the tide turning) shows, there are a lot of newspaper journalists with personal blogs (including, er, me).
And unless media organisations impose a heavy-handed and creativity-killing ban on journalists' personal blogs, there is every likelihood that the number of hacks with personal blogs will boom during 2005. If newspapers are to embrace the two-way conversation with readers predicted by Dan Gillmor and others, they are going to have to accept that the dialogue will feature their own staff. Anyway, there are plenty of examples of best practice out there: not least the BBC's Stuart Hughes and Guardian Unlimited's very own Neil McIntosh.
Posted by Jane Perrone at December 14, 2004 03:39 PM
The Whole is Not the Mere Sum of the Parts
Yesterday Atrios (a recovering economist) had a good commentary on "Stupid Economists" which focused on the error of the "bottom line," or in this case, the sum of economic data rather than disaggregating results into a more meaningful analysis of policy outcomes:
Suppose "free trade" increases GDP by 100 billion overall. However, 60% of the population actually lose a total of $50 billion income, while the other 40% gain a total of $150 billion. For a majority of the population this is a bad deal. Is it good economic policy? Well, that depends on your social welfare function. The problem we have these days is that the default social welfare function is simply equal to "GDP." Policies which make a majority of the population worse off shouldn't be enacted simply because they get Tom Friedman excited.
Suppose "free trade" increases GDP by 100 billion overall. However, 60% of the population actually lose a total of $50 billion income, while the other 40% gain a total of $150 billion. For a majority of the population this is a bad deal. Is it good economic policy? Well, that depends on your social welfare function. The problem we have these days is that the default social welfare function is simply equal to "GDP." Policies which make a majority of the population worse off shouldn't be enacted simply because they get Tom Friedman excited.
Monday, December 13, 2004
A Perilous Road
After a late afternoon run through the blogging universe, I couldn't help but post one more for Monday. The DailyKos has a great diary on The Week in Fascism, which builds on an article from
Laurence W. Britt in Free Inquiry Magazine. Kudos to Tomtech who plowed through the DailyKos Diaries for entries under each of the 14 signs of a fascist society, arguing that we are getting a bit too close to certain European countries of the 1930s. But for AA readers, I shall just cover the main points which, no doubt, will offend someone (because they are so good!).
Do any of these sound familiar?
1. Powerful and continuing expressions of nationalism. From the prominent displays of flags and bunting to the ubiquitous lapel pins, the fervor to show patriotic nationalism, both on the part of the regime itself and of citizens caught up in its frenzy, was always obvious.
2. Disdain for the importance of human rights. The regimes themselves viewed human rights as of little value and a hindrance to realizing the objectives of the ruling elite.
3. Identification of enemies/scapegoats as a unifying cause. The most significant common thread among these regimes was the use of scapegoating as a means to divert the people’s attention from other problems, to shift blame for failures, and to channel frustration in controlled directions.
4. The supremacy of the military/avid militarism. Ruling elites always identified closely with the military and the industrial infrastructure that supported it. A disproportionate share of national resources was allocated to the military, even when domestic needs were acute.
5. Rampant sexism. [Enough said.]
6. A controlled mass media. Under some of the regimes, the mass media were under strict direct control and could be relied upon never to stray from the party line. [Foxnews.com]
7. Obsession with national security. [!!!]
8. Religion and ruling elite tied together.
9. Power of corporations protected. Although the personal life of ordinary citizens was under strict control, the ability of large corporations to operate in relative freedom was not compromised.
10. Power of labor suppressed or eliminated. [Can you say Freedom-To-Work Laws?]
11. Disdain and suppression of intellectuals and the arts.
12. Obsession with crime and punishment.
13. Rampant cronyism and corruption. Those in business circles and close to the power elite often used their position to enrich themselves. This corruption worked both ways; the power elite would receive financial gifts and property from the economic elite, who in turn would gain the benefit of government favoritism
14. Fraudulent elections. Elections in the form of plebiscites or public opinion polls were usually bogus. When actual elections with candidates were held, they would usually be perverted by the power elite to get the desired result. Common methods included maintaining control of the election machinery, intimidating and disenfranchising opposition voters, destroying or disallowing legal votes, and, as a last resort, turning to a judiciary beholden to the power elite.
Laurence W. Britt in Free Inquiry Magazine. Kudos to Tomtech who plowed through the DailyKos Diaries for entries under each of the 14 signs of a fascist society, arguing that we are getting a bit too close to certain European countries of the 1930s. But for AA readers, I shall just cover the main points which, no doubt, will offend someone (because they are so good!).
Do any of these sound familiar?
1. Powerful and continuing expressions of nationalism. From the prominent displays of flags and bunting to the ubiquitous lapel pins, the fervor to show patriotic nationalism, both on the part of the regime itself and of citizens caught up in its frenzy, was always obvious.
2. Disdain for the importance of human rights. The regimes themselves viewed human rights as of little value and a hindrance to realizing the objectives of the ruling elite.
3. Identification of enemies/scapegoats as a unifying cause. The most significant common thread among these regimes was the use of scapegoating as a means to divert the people’s attention from other problems, to shift blame for failures, and to channel frustration in controlled directions.
4. The supremacy of the military/avid militarism. Ruling elites always identified closely with the military and the industrial infrastructure that supported it. A disproportionate share of national resources was allocated to the military, even when domestic needs were acute.
5. Rampant sexism. [Enough said.]
6. A controlled mass media. Under some of the regimes, the mass media were under strict direct control and could be relied upon never to stray from the party line. [Foxnews.com]
7. Obsession with national security. [!!!]
8. Religion and ruling elite tied together.
9. Power of corporations protected. Although the personal life of ordinary citizens was under strict control, the ability of large corporations to operate in relative freedom was not compromised.
10. Power of labor suppressed or eliminated. [Can you say Freedom-To-Work Laws?]
11. Disdain and suppression of intellectuals and the arts.
12. Obsession with crime and punishment.
13. Rampant cronyism and corruption. Those in business circles and close to the power elite often used their position to enrich themselves. This corruption worked both ways; the power elite would receive financial gifts and property from the economic elite, who in turn would gain the benefit of government favoritism
14. Fraudulent elections. Elections in the form of plebiscites or public opinion polls were usually bogus. When actual elections with candidates were held, they would usually be perverted by the power elite to get the desired result. Common methods included maintaining control of the election machinery, intimidating and disenfranchising opposition voters, destroying or disallowing legal votes, and, as a last resort, turning to a judiciary beholden to the power elite.
Old Tunes for Old Folks
How did I miss this with my cup-o-joe? The Pixies played a reunion concert at the Hammerstein Ballroom, covered by the New York Times, which had this to say:
It had been all too easy to forget about the Pixies' ugliness: how fast they played, how loud they were, how nasty they sounded.
Good memories.
In a place they say is dead
in the lake that's like an ocean
i count about a billion head
all the time
there's a motion
palace of the brine
i saw the cloning
of the famous family
i heard the droning
in the shrine
of the sea-monkey
palace of the brine
beneath reflections in the fountain
the starry sky and utah mountains
they are swimming happily
can't you see
a life that's so sublime
palace of the brine.
It had been all too easy to forget about the Pixies' ugliness: how fast they played, how loud they were, how nasty they sounded.
Good memories.
In a place they say is dead
in the lake that's like an ocean
i count about a billion head
all the time
there's a motion
palace of the brine
i saw the cloning
of the famous family
i heard the droning
in the shrine
of the sea-monkey
palace of the brine
beneath reflections in the fountain
the starry sky and utah mountains
they are swimming happily
can't you see
a life that's so sublime
palace of the brine.
Monday Morning Blahs
There's nothing quite like a groggy Monday morning read of the news to make you think that you are still asleep and stuck in a bad dream cycling on a loop.
The New Republic has an online essay by Gregg Easterbrook on creationism in Georgia schools which begins:
Sometime soon a federal court will rule on a disclaimer that the Board of Education of Cobb County, Georgia, an Atlanta suburb, has ordered placed on high-school biology textbooks. Stickers bearing the disclaimer say, "Evolution is a theory, not a fact, regarding the origin of living things. This material should be approached with an open mind, studied carefully, and critically considered."
And from the great state of Ohio we learn that septugenarians are being recalled for active service in Iraq:
Lt. Col. Bryan Hilferty, an Army spokesman, said the service has taken back some 350 soldiers who had already retired from the military. But some of those could have done 20 years of duty and still be only in their late 30s. He did not know how many of the returning retirees are 60 or older.
Not that our allies are any better. From across the pond in The Guardian we learn that concerned civic groups want to outlaw the carrying of knives in public:
Families of stabbing victims today delivered a petition to Downing Street calling on the government to make carrying a knife as serious an offence as carrying a gun.
The group, which includes Damilola Taylor's father, demanded that ministers introduce a five-year minimum jail term for carrying an object with a blade longer than three inches, which would equalise the penalties for knives and guns.
They also want to see a six-month minimum jail term for carrying a blade shorter than three inches, or three months for juveniles.
When knives are outlawed, only the outlaws will be able to carve the turkey.
The New Republic has an online essay by Gregg Easterbrook on creationism in Georgia schools which begins:
Sometime soon a federal court will rule on a disclaimer that the Board of Education of Cobb County, Georgia, an Atlanta suburb, has ordered placed on high-school biology textbooks. Stickers bearing the disclaimer say, "Evolution is a theory, not a fact, regarding the origin of living things. This material should be approached with an open mind, studied carefully, and critically considered."
And from the great state of Ohio we learn that septugenarians are being recalled for active service in Iraq:
Lt. Col. Bryan Hilferty, an Army spokesman, said the service has taken back some 350 soldiers who had already retired from the military. But some of those could have done 20 years of duty and still be only in their late 30s. He did not know how many of the returning retirees are 60 or older.
Not that our allies are any better. From across the pond in The Guardian we learn that concerned civic groups want to outlaw the carrying of knives in public:
Families of stabbing victims today delivered a petition to Downing Street calling on the government to make carrying a knife as serious an offence as carrying a gun.
The group, which includes Damilola Taylor's father, demanded that ministers introduce a five-year minimum jail term for carrying an object with a blade longer than three inches, which would equalise the penalties for knives and guns.
They also want to see a six-month minimum jail term for carrying a blade shorter than three inches, or three months for juveniles.
When knives are outlawed, only the outlaws will be able to carve the turkey.
Rose Bowl Blues 2
Pasadena is a city that is big on tradition, especially the traditions it has invented.
The traditional Rose Bowl matchup harkens back to Pasadena's Midwest roots, Haderlein explained. The football game helps pay for the Tournament of Roses Parade, and both were designed to show off Pasadena's charms to westward-looking Midwesterners.
The Pasadena Star-News has a brief article covering the ambivalence Pasadenans have over the Rose Bowl's inclusion in the BCS, with a few choice observations. As for the algorithm for selecting the game participants, one booster has this opinion:
That should not be difficult with CalTech just down the street.
Conspicuous Reading
The Sunday Boston Globe raises the name of a dead theorist from the past, Thorstein Veblen, who coined the much-bandied term "conspicuous consumption" back in 1899. A century on, his views of visible, and "wasteful," materialism among wealthy Americans still rings true (think Martha Stewart), but his disdain for fellow economists is just as endearing:
Where the economists of his day deployed charts and graphs, Veblen turned to anthropology and the study of Icelandic clans and Polynesian islanders to expose the atavistic, irrational essence of capitalism -- a system, Veblen concluded, driven by the extravagant wastefulness of the rich and the rapacious habits of "pecuniary experts."
Where the economists of his day deployed charts and graphs, Veblen turned to anthropology and the study of Icelandic clans and Polynesian islanders to expose the atavistic, irrational essence of capitalism -- a system, Veblen concluded, driven by the extravagant wastefulness of the rich and the rapacious habits of "pecuniary experts."
Saturday, December 11, 2004
Weekend Reading Update - The British View
Remember Hurricane Ivan? Well, the British press hasn't forgotten. Tomorrow's London Observer has an article on the rebuilding effort in Grenada.
And when you're done with that, The Times has an article about the habits of book abusers, scribbling in the margins and what not. They also proclaim to have found a saintly founder of spam:
The posthumous patron of Spam can only be Samuel Taylor Coleridge, who invented the term “marginalia” and became so notorious for writing pithy remarks and asides in books that friends and rivals would send him their own works requesting that he scribble his thoughts in them. The marginalia became more important than the text, at least in Coleridge’s estimation: in a volume belonging to fellow writer Charles Lamb, he wrote: “I will not be long here, Charles! — & gone, you will not mind my having spoiled a book in order to leave a Relic.”
And when you're done with that, The Times has an article about the habits of book abusers, scribbling in the margins and what not. They also proclaim to have found a saintly founder of spam:
The posthumous patron of Spam can only be Samuel Taylor Coleridge, who invented the term “marginalia” and became so notorious for writing pithy remarks and asides in books that friends and rivals would send him their own works requesting that he scribble his thoughts in them. The marginalia became more important than the text, at least in Coleridge’s estimation: in a volume belonging to fellow writer Charles Lamb, he wrote: “I will not be long here, Charles! — & gone, you will not mind my having spoiled a book in order to leave a Relic.”
Friday, December 10, 2004
Dumb OC Voters II
Steve Rocco at the Orange Unified School District Dec. 9, 2004
In an update of the OC voter debacle, Steve Rocco was sworn in as a school board member last night. Sporting chic, black, conspiracy-nut vestments, Mr. Rocco gave a rambling five-minute speech that was commented on by LA media in attendance, but glossed over by local Orange County reporters.
And if the news itself wasn't entertaining enough, the local Orange County Register provides readers today with a classic quote of denial:
Phillip Knypstra, a retired college professor and police officer, said he's not ready to judge Rocco.
"Obviously, he has his own philosophy that he's expressing that I don't think I understand," Knypstra said.
"I don't see a connection between conspiracy theories, but we'll give him time. ... We'll see how he comes out on fiscal matters, and then I'll make a judgment."
The time to make a judgement was *before* the election.
The Big International "Sucking Sound"
Today's Pacific New Service includes a story that India's tech sectors, which has benefited greatly from outsources the past few years, is now itself a victim of outsourcing to China:
The one most important reason for IT business being driven to China is the cost advantage — China at the moment has an excess supply of well-trained engineers willing to work at wages lower than in India. Revenue from India’s IT exports was $12.5 billion in the year 2003-4 (March ended), up 30 percent from the previous year, which in turn has resulted in a 10-15 percent annual rise in wages in India’s software and back-office services industry. In turn, software export revenue for China in the year 2003 was just $700 million which leaves an over-eager and hungry-for-work, skilled workforce willing to work at a lower cost than India. This means that on an average an engineer with some experience in Shanghai can to be paid a monthly salary of less than $500 compared to over $700 in India and upwards of $5,000 in the Silicon Valley.
What goes around, comes around. But this big picture of IT outsourcing, and others, is still this: Firms invest in new technologies that require highly educated, skilled employees. The public (i.e., students) reacts and makes long term investments in the job market through delayed employment (education) and costly financial outlays (tuition), expecting compensation for their investment over the long term. In the past, firms rewarded this labor and knowledge input with increasing pay for services rendered. Now, however, they simply move their labor base to that market with the lowest costs, meaning more returns for the firm which are not passed along to workers. We saw it here first, and now it appears that India will also experience the "big sucking sound" that greeted NAFTA.
The one most important reason for IT business being driven to China is the cost advantage — China at the moment has an excess supply of well-trained engineers willing to work at wages lower than in India. Revenue from India’s IT exports was $12.5 billion in the year 2003-4 (March ended), up 30 percent from the previous year, which in turn has resulted in a 10-15 percent annual rise in wages in India’s software and back-office services industry. In turn, software export revenue for China in the year 2003 was just $700 million which leaves an over-eager and hungry-for-work, skilled workforce willing to work at a lower cost than India. This means that on an average an engineer with some experience in Shanghai can to be paid a monthly salary of less than $500 compared to over $700 in India and upwards of $5,000 in the Silicon Valley.
What goes around, comes around. But this big picture of IT outsourcing, and others, is still this: Firms invest in new technologies that require highly educated, skilled employees. The public (i.e., students) reacts and makes long term investments in the job market through delayed employment (education) and costly financial outlays (tuition), expecting compensation for their investment over the long term. In the past, firms rewarded this labor and knowledge input with increasing pay for services rendered. Now, however, they simply move their labor base to that market with the lowest costs, meaning more returns for the firm which are not passed along to workers. We saw it here first, and now it appears that India will also experience the "big sucking sound" that greeted NAFTA.
Studying for a Nobel Prize
This weekend marks the 28th anniversary of Saul Bellow's Nobel Prize Lecture. So what inspiring words did he give the world? Undergrads take note:
I was a very contrary undergraduate more than 40 years ago. It was my habit to register for a course and then to do most of my reading in another field of study. So that when I should have been grinding away at "Money and Banking" I was reading the novels of Joseph Conrad. I have never had reason to regret this.
I was a very contrary undergraduate more than 40 years ago. It was my habit to register for a course and then to do most of my reading in another field of study. So that when I should have been grinding away at "Money and Banking" I was reading the novels of Joseph Conrad. I have never had reason to regret this.
Thursday, December 09, 2004
Is That Poll Real, or is it Memorex?
Can't let this pass me by. A couple hours ago, Slate posted this posthoc analysis of election polls. So, which polls were most accurate, and why? They found three key areas:
1. Party Identification: Historically, Democrats bring more people to the polls, but this time it split close to 50/50 (roughly 37% of the electorate came out for both the GOP and Democrats evenly). Polls that used historical data to weigh responses were wrong.
2. Undecided Voters: Traditionally, these voters break for the challenger, but in 2004 they broke only slightly for Kerry.
3. Automation: The most interesting finding is that the polls using automation (i.e., Rasumussen and SurveyUSA) were the best predictors of the winner in the bit battleground states. Why will no doubt launch a thousand poly sci dissertations.
1. Party Identification: Historically, Democrats bring more people to the polls, but this time it split close to 50/50 (roughly 37% of the electorate came out for both the GOP and Democrats evenly). Polls that used historical data to weigh responses were wrong.
2. Undecided Voters: Traditionally, these voters break for the challenger, but in 2004 they broke only slightly for Kerry.
3. Automation: The most interesting finding is that the polls using automation (i.e., Rasumussen and SurveyUSA) were the best predictors of the winner in the bit battleground states. Why will no doubt launch a thousand poly sci dissertations.
One Pic Trumps Hundreds of WH Press Releases
Empiricism Confronts Rosy Projections from the Dismal Science
Visualizing Blogs
Digging around the archives files is almost as good as browsing the library stacks, without the dust. I've just found a nice little experiment in visualizing blogging history from Tom Coates at plasticbag.org which the social network folks of you out there will like.
Of course, if you are intrigued with data visualization, I can do no better than recommend the work of Edward Tufte, who is clearly a pioneer in the field.
Of course, if you are intrigued with data visualization, I can do no better than recommend the work of Edward Tufte, who is clearly a pioneer in the field.
The Omniscient OC Voter
Remember the UK's Daily Mirror headline, "How Can 59,054,087 People Be So DUMB?" from last month? While the political pundits continue the debate for the next four years, I think the Mirror was on to an important aspect of American electoral behavior. Public credence in our political institutions has always been very high, so when we witness elected officials and the courts blunder over debacles such as Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004, the public is rightly shocked and concerned. Another way of looking at incoherent election results is through the perspective of the voting class themselves - that is, what if the omniscient voters were just plain WRONG!?
And this brings us to Orange County, California. Last month the Orange Unified School District election for Trustee Area 6 pitted Phil Martinez, a local park ranger with three children attending schools in the district, and who is active in his local PTA and Boy Scouts, against Steve Rocco. Up to the election Mr. Rocco declined all interview requests, all position statement request by local unions and voter groups, issued no candidate statement with the county, and limited his campaign to a small amount of photocopied flyers and homemade lawn signs. On the ballot Mr. Martinez was identified as a "park ranger" and Mr. Rocco as an "educator."
But in the privacy of the voting booth, OC voters elected Rocco with 54.1% of the vote (33,503) while Martinez received 45.9% (28,448). In the days afterward, people began to ask, "Who is Steve Rocco?"
In the few articles since then, notably in the LA Times and the San Diego Union-Tribune, we have learned that while certified as an elementary school teacher, Steve Rocco hasn't worked in education for years. Instead, he has hosted a local public access television show and self-published a book in 1992, "Behind The Orange Curtain: Secret Chronicles and Public Record Accounts of Corruption, Murder and Scandal of Corporate and Political California." It details his charge that a coterie of local officials, judges and polititions - a group he calls "The Partnership" - have conspired against him for the past 25 years, dating to an old charge of stealing sausages from a local store. And at 53 he still lives with his parents (his father died last month).
Recently, the local NPR station KPCC conducted a pseudo-interview with Rocco. I say "pseudo" because it took place in his attorney's office and he let his lawyer do much of the talking. The LA Times reporter tagged along and gave this assessment:
Rocco is a frail man, with a pale, gaunt face covered partly by a scruffy beard. During Friday's interview, held at his lawyer's Santa Ana office, he wore large glasses with clip-on sunglasses attached. A frayed piece of black fabric tied around his left arm, he said, was to memorialize his father, who he said died Nov. 9. Rocco periodically scribbled notes on a piece of paper, meticulously noting the time each entry was made. He refused to be photographed.
Tonight, amid much media interest, Mr. Rocco will be sworn in as one of seven board members of a district serving 32,000 students in 42 schools with an annual budget of around $230 million. I wonder if he will mention his "mandate," given that he received a majority of the vote. The moral of this sorry political tale seems to be, if the voters are indeed omniscient, then surely this was the "best" man for the position. Understandably, he is not. Perhaps state officials will have to rethink the label candidates have next to their names on the ballot. This has happened before in Los Angeles County, where candidates sharing the names of famous political families garner impressive wins as voters mistakenly take them to be from a political clan (that's called social capital). Clearly, what happened here is that the cultural frames voters had around the titles "park ranger" and "educator" influenced the outcome in spite of objective evidence that Mr. Rocco was not the best candidate for the board. It is clear that voters err, sometimes outrageously, and that we should admit it openly.
And this brings us to Orange County, California. Last month the Orange Unified School District election for Trustee Area 6 pitted Phil Martinez, a local park ranger with three children attending schools in the district, and who is active in his local PTA and Boy Scouts, against Steve Rocco. Up to the election Mr. Rocco declined all interview requests, all position statement request by local unions and voter groups, issued no candidate statement with the county, and limited his campaign to a small amount of photocopied flyers and homemade lawn signs. On the ballot Mr. Martinez was identified as a "park ranger" and Mr. Rocco as an "educator."
But in the privacy of the voting booth, OC voters elected Rocco with 54.1% of the vote (33,503) while Martinez received 45.9% (28,448). In the days afterward, people began to ask, "Who is Steve Rocco?"
In the few articles since then, notably in the LA Times and the San Diego Union-Tribune, we have learned that while certified as an elementary school teacher, Steve Rocco hasn't worked in education for years. Instead, he has hosted a local public access television show and self-published a book in 1992, "Behind The Orange Curtain: Secret Chronicles and Public Record Accounts of Corruption, Murder and Scandal of Corporate and Political California." It details his charge that a coterie of local officials, judges and polititions - a group he calls "The Partnership" - have conspired against him for the past 25 years, dating to an old charge of stealing sausages from a local store. And at 53 he still lives with his parents (his father died last month).
Recently, the local NPR station KPCC conducted a pseudo-interview with Rocco. I say "pseudo" because it took place in his attorney's office and he let his lawyer do much of the talking. The LA Times reporter tagged along and gave this assessment:
Rocco is a frail man, with a pale, gaunt face covered partly by a scruffy beard. During Friday's interview, held at his lawyer's Santa Ana office, he wore large glasses with clip-on sunglasses attached. A frayed piece of black fabric tied around his left arm, he said, was to memorialize his father, who he said died Nov. 9. Rocco periodically scribbled notes on a piece of paper, meticulously noting the time each entry was made. He refused to be photographed.
Tonight, amid much media interest, Mr. Rocco will be sworn in as one of seven board members of a district serving 32,000 students in 42 schools with an annual budget of around $230 million. I wonder if he will mention his "mandate," given that he received a majority of the vote. The moral of this sorry political tale seems to be, if the voters are indeed omniscient, then surely this was the "best" man for the position. Understandably, he is not. Perhaps state officials will have to rethink the label candidates have next to their names on the ballot. This has happened before in Los Angeles County, where candidates sharing the names of famous political families garner impressive wins as voters mistakenly take them to be from a political clan (that's called social capital). Clearly, what happened here is that the cultural frames voters had around the titles "park ranger" and "educator" influenced the outcome in spite of objective evidence that Mr. Rocco was not the best candidate for the board. It is clear that voters err, sometimes outrageously, and that we should admit it openly.
The Wrecking Ball of History
From the material culture and urban studies files I see that the LA City Council has voted for a survey of historic buildings in the city to determine which are worthy of historic designation (and, therefore, to be saved from the wrecking ball). Angelinos are notoriously famous for creating architectural/social landscapes with complete disregard for history (see works by Mike Davis and Norman Klein), but why a survey? Groups like LA Conservancy have already been compiling data for decades, and - this is a hoot - the City Council doesn't yet have the funds ($5M) but is hoping that the private sector will help out.
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